March 13, 1936
There has rarely been a crisis in which Hope and Peril have presented themselves so vividly and so simultaneously upon the world scene. When Herr Hitler on Saturday last repudiated the Treaty of Locarno and marched his troops into the Rhineland, he confronted the League of Nations with its supreme trial and also with its most splendid opportunity. If the League of Nations survives this ordeal there is no reason why the horrible, dull, remorseless drift to war in 1937 or 1938, and the preparatory piling up of enormous armaments in every country, should not be decisively arrested. A reign of law may be established in Europe, the sanctity of Treaties may be vindicated, and from that commanding eminence Germany may be welcomed back to the family of nations upon terms which will assure her a safe and honourable future. The risks to be run to gain this prize are, however, serious in the last degree. They must be faced with firm convictions and a steadfast gaze unfilmed by illusion.
France believes and declares that she has sustained a grievous injury at the hands of Germany. If we had been invaded four times in a hundred years, we should understand better how terrible that injury is. England has not seen the camp fires of an invading army for nearly a thousand years. To France and Belgium the avalanche of fire and steel which fell upon them twenty years ago, and the agony of the German occupation which followed, are an overpowering memory and obsession. The demilitarised zone which they gained by awful sacrifices is to them not only a bulwark, but the guarantee of a breathing space between them and mortal calamity. How should we feel if-to change the metaphor-we saw a tiger, the marks of whose teeth and claws had scarred every limb of our bodies, coming forward and crouching within exactly the distance of a single spring? Whether these fears are justified or not, is arguable. But it is particularly important for us to realise how the French and Belgians feel.
Instead of retaliating by armed force, as would have been done in a previous generation, France has taken the proper and prescribed course of appealing to the League of Nations. She has taken her case before the Court and she asks for justice there. If the Court finds that her case is just, but is unable to offer her any satisfaction, that will be a very serious blow to the Court. The Covenant of the League of Nations will have been proved a fraud and collective security a sham. If no means of patient, lawful redress can be offered to the aggrieved party, the whole doctrine of international law and co-operation, upon which the hopes of the future are based, would lapse ignominiously. It would be replaced immediately by a system of alliances, and groups of nations, deprived of all guarantees but their own right arm, which might take the law into their own hands and strike for their vital safety at whatever moment offered them the best chance. On the other hand, if the League of Nations were able to enforce its decree upon one of the most powerful countries in the world found to be an aggressor, then the authority of the League is set up upon so majestic a pedestal that it must henceforth be the accepted sovereign authority by which all the quarrels of peoples can be determined and controlled. Thus we might upon this occasion reach by one single bound the realisation of our most cherished dreams.
But the risk! No one must ignore it. How can it be minimised? There is a simple method: the assembly of overwhelming force, moral and physical, in support of international law. If the relative strengths are narrowly balanced, war may break out in a few weeks, and no one can measure what the course of war may be, or who will be drawn into its whirlpools, or how, if ever, they will emerge. But if the forces at the disposal of the League of Nations are four or five times as strong as those which the Aggressor can as yet command, the chances of a peaceful and friendly solution are very good. Therefore every nation, great or small, should play its part according to the Covenant of the League.
Upon what force can the League of Nations count at this cardinal moment? Has she sheriffs and constables with whom to sustain her judgments, or is she left alone, impotent, a hollow mockery amid the lip-serving platitudes of irresolute or cynical devotees? Strangely enough for the destiny of the world, there never was a moment or occasion when the League of Nations could command such overwhelming force. The Constabulary of the world is at hand. On every side of Geneva stand great nations, armed and ready, whose interests as well as whose obligations bind them to uphold, and, in the last resort, enforce, the public law. This may never come to pass again. The fateful moment has arrived for choice between the New Age and the Old.
But there is one nation of all others which has the opportunity of rendering a noble service to the world. Herr Hitler and the great disconsolate Germany he leads have now the chance to place themselves in the very forefront of civilization. By a proud and voluntary submission, not to any single country or group of countries, but to the sanctity of Treaties and the authority of public law, by an immediate withdrawal from the Rhineland, they may open a new era for all mankind and create conditions in which German genius may gain its highest glory. So much upon the main issue.
I have not mentioned the obligations of Great Britain under the Treaty of Locarno. They are absolute. There is no escape from them. There is much goodwill in England towards Germany, and a deep desire for the day when the clouds may be dispersed and the three great peoples of Western Europe may join hands in lasting friendship. But it ought not even to be necessary to state that Great Britain, if ultimately called upon, will honour her obligations both under the Covenant of the League and under the Treaty of Locarno.
