Nothing can be a clearer gain to the kingdom, than the returns of the 200,000 l. consumed at home; because treble that sum would otherwise be carried out for foreign silks and linen, which is hindered by the importation of East India commodities.
The inspection I have made upon other occasions, into the general state and condition of this kingdom, has led me upon very good grounds to think, that the East-India trade did annually add tothe gross stock of England at least 600,000 l. per ann. in times of peace.
For I have many cogent reasons inducing me to believe, that from about ann. 1656 to ann. 1688, this nation has every year gradually encreased in riches, by what degrees is needless here to insert; but upon mature consideration, I may safely state, that about ann. 1688, the encrease or addition to the wealth and general stock of England, arising from foreign trade, and home manufactures, was at least 2 millions yearly.
And after much thought and study on this subject, and by consulting others versed in spectulations of the like nature, Ifind that this encrease to the nation's general flock, did probably arise from the 3 following articles, viz.
From our manufactures and home product sent to the plantations, and from the returns thereof, exported to foreign parts... 900,000 l.
From our woolen manufacture, lead, tin, leather, and our other native product sent to France, Spain, Italy, Germany, etc.... 500,000 l.
From the neat profit accruing by the East-India trade... 600,000 l.
Total 2,000,000 l.
If the East-India trade did, in peaceful times, bring so great an encrease to the annual income of the kingdom (and Ithink the contrary is capable of no clear demonstration) the legislative power ought to proceed with much caution in any matter relating to it.
Whatever country can be in the full and undisputed possession of it, will give law to all the commercial world.
Should we quit the hold we have in India, and abandon the traffic, our neighbours the Dutch will undoubtedly engross the whole: and if to their naval strength in Europe, such a foreign strength and welath be added, England must hereafter be contented to trade by their protection, and under their banners.
As war does vary all the circumstances of trade, alter its channel, give it to one people, and take it from another; so, in seasons of war, it is by no means proper nor advisable, to embrace new counsels in relation to it: nor can we then take any true measures, or make any right and sound judgment about it.
The scarcity of money in a long war, makes any exportation of bullion thought a great grievance; of which, in quiet times, we should not be sensible.
In the same manner, the interruption of any manufacture, though never so prejudical to the kingdom, is grievous in a time of war, when business is scarce, and trading dull, but in a time of peace, and full employment, these hands can shift from one work to another, without any great prejudice to themselves, or the public.
There having been, for three years last past, a great want of East-India goods, and there happening of late a great call for the woollen manufactures, and indeed for all the product of England, some unthinking persons grew presently to imagine, that the want of East-India goods (and no other reason) had brought the woollen manufacture into request, and encreased its consumption; from whence very many have begun to argue and infer, that the East-India trade is, and always was, prejudicial to the kingdom.
But the sudden call which was then for all kind of English commodities, as well as the woollen manufacture, viz. lead, tin, leather, butter, cheese, tallow, etc. did not proceed from the want of East-India goods, but indeed from the posture of the exchange abroad, the ill condition of our silver coin, and the high price guineas were brought to; for we plainly see this great demand, both abroad and at home, for our goods does cease, now guineas are lowered, and the coin is altered.
My lord, it has been too often the fault of English councils, to determine rashly of the most important matters.
And (with submission to better judgments) I doubt it may be of very dangerous consequence at this time, to meddle with, or give any disturbance to a settled traffic.
The concern of wool is, without doubt, to be taken care of, but not so as upon that account, to slight all our foreign interest.
The East-India company has been for a long time looked upon with an evil eye, by some people, because there has formerly been ill management in their affairs; and for that some of their goods were thought to hinder the consumption of our own manufactures;and because it was seen what silver they really carried out, and not enough considered what bullion their effects brought hither in return.
Some persons (without doors) either bribed by the Dutch, or to flatter that interest, profess themselves open enemies to the traffic in general; others through inadvertency, and for want of examining into the bottom of things, give into their notions; and other join with them out of immoderate zeal to promote the woollen manufacture: so that any discerning man may see, that the utter ruin of this trade, and its entire loss to England, will be compassed, unless the king, assisted by the legislative power, out of his fatherly love to his people, interpose, with his wisdom, in the matter.
One of the principal dangers now, of taking new cousels about it, is, that in a time of war, if by any false steps and measures, we should lose ground in India, neither our condition, nor the nature of our present alliance with the Dutch, will permit us to assert our right in those parts by force of arms.
And if we should come so to lose our hold in India, as not to trade thither at all, or but weakly and precariously, I will venture to affirm (and I hope your lordship will remember hereafter this prediction of mine) that England will thereby lose half its foreign business.
