For the benefit of those not acquainted with the roulette-wheel --and I may as well confess that most of my own knowledge was gained in that one crowded evening--I may say that it consists, briefly, of a wooden disc very nicely balanced and turning in the centre of a cavity set into a table like a circular wash-basin, with an outer rim turned slightly inward.The "croupier" revolves the wheel to the right.With a quick motion of his middle finger he flicks a marble, usually of ivory, to the left.At the Vesper Club, always up-to-date, the ball was of platinum, not of ivory.
The disc with its sloping sides is provided with a number of brass rods, some perpendicular, some horizontal.As the ball and the wheel lose momentum the ball strikes against the rods and finally is deflected into one of the many little pockets or stalls facing the rim of the wheel.
There are thirty-eight of these pockets; two are marked "0" and "00," the others numbered from one to thirty-six in an irregular and confusing order and painted alternately red and black.At each end of the table are thirty-six large squares correspondingly numbered and coloured.The "0" and "00" are of a neutral colour.Whenever the ball falls in the "0" or "00" the bank takes the stakes, or sweeps the the board.The Monte Carlo wheel has only one "0," while the typical American has two, and the Chinese has four.
To one like myself who had read of the Continental gambling-houses with the clink of gold pieces on the table, and the croupier with his wooden rake noisily raking in the winnings of the bank, the comparative silence of the American game comes as a surprise.
As we advanced, we heard only the rattle of the ball, the click of the chips, and the monotonous tone of the spinner:
"Twenty-three, black.Eight, red.Seventeen, black." It was almost like the boys in a broker's office calling off the quotations of the ticker and marking them up on the board.
Leaning forward, almost oblivious to the rest, was Percival DeLong, a tall, lithe, handsome young man, whose boyish face ill comported with the marks of dissipation clearly outlined on it.
Such a boy, it flashed across my mind, ought to be studying the possible plays of football of an evening in the field-house after his dinner at the training-table, rather than the possible gyrations of the little platinum ball on the wheel.
"Curse the luck!" he exclaimed, as "17" appeared again.
A Hebrew banker staked a pile of chips on the "17" to come up a third time.A murmur of applause at his nerve ran through the circle.DeLong hesitated, as one who thought, "Seventeen has come out twice --the odds against its coming again are too great, even though the winnings would be fabulous, for a good stake." He placed his next bet on another number.
"He's playing Lord Rosslyn's system, tonight," whispered my friend.
The wheel spun, the ball rolled, and the croupier called again, "Seventeen, black." A tremor of excitement ran through the crowd.
It was almost unprecedented.
DeLong, with a stifled oath, leaned back and scanned the faces about the table.
"And '17' has precisely the same chance of turning up in the next spin as if it had not already had a run of three," said a voice at my elbow.
It was Kennedy.The roulette-table needs no introduction when curious sequences are afoot.All are friends.
"That's the theory of Sir Hiram Maxim;" commented my friend, as he excused himself reluctantly for another appointment."But no true gambler will believe it, monsieur, or at least act on it."All eyes were turned on Kennedy, who made a gesture of polite deprecation, as if the remark of my friend were true, but he nonchalantly placed his chips on the "17.""The odds against '17' appearing four consecutive times are some millions," he went on, "and yet, having appeared three times, it is just as likely to appear again as before.It is the usual practice to avoid a number that has had a run, on the theory that some other number is more likely to come up than it is.That would be the case if it were drawing balls from a bag full of red and black balls--the more red ones drawn the smaller the chance of drawing another red one.But if the balls are put back in the bag after being drawn the chances of drawing a red one after three have been drawn are exactly the same as ever.If we toss a cent and heads appear twelve times, that does not have the slightest effect on the thirteenth toss-- there is still an even chance that it, too, will be heads.So if '17' had come up five times to-night, it would be just as likely to come the sixth as if the previous five had not occurred, and that despite the fact that before it has appeared at all odds against a run of the same number six times in succession are about two billion, four hundred and ninety-six million, and some thousands.Most systems are based on the old persistent belief that occurrences of chance are affected in some way by occurrences immediately preceding, but disconnected physically.If we've had a run of black for twenty times, system says play the red for the twenty-first.But black is just as likely to turn up the twenty-first as if it were the first play of all.The confusion arises because a run of twenty on the black should happen once in one million, forty-eight thousand, five hundred and seventy-six coups.It would take ten years to make that many coups, and the run of twenty might occur once or any number of times in it.It is only when one deals with infinitely large numbers of coups that one can count on infinitely small variations in the mathematical results.This game does not go on for infinity --therefore anything, everything, may happen.Systems are based on the infinite; we play in the finite.""You talk like a professor I had at the university," ejaculated DeLong contemptuously as Craig finished his disquisition on the practical fallibility of theoretically infallible systems.Again DeLong carefully avoided the "17," as well as the black.
